With less than 60 days to the Iowa caucuses, the GOP has been unable to anoint a front-runner to unseat Barack Obama from the office of president. So far the process seems more like a low rating reality show than a process to pick a presidential candidate. I’m seriously waiting for Sean Hannity or Greta van Susteren to start handing out roses to all of the candidates except for the one who lost the debate. We proudly present Answers From Men’s first betting guide to the 2012 Republican presidential primaries.
I mean absolutely no offense to the man personally, but Governor Romney is something like a cockroach. The party is not excited about him at all and has desperately wanted to push him to the side, but no one can step on him or hit him with the newspaper. His campaign just can’t be killed. He’s boring, not consistent, and not conservative enough to galvanize a group awaiting a savior. Romney’s been previously surpassed by Rick Perry, Chris Christie (who didn’t even run), and Herman Cain, but he keeps chugging along. I see no reason why he won’t scamper all the way to an acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention in August.
Odds to win nomination: 2 to 1
Mr. Cain was well on his way to a victory until the world found out that he likes women a little too much … allegedly. Republicans are very concerned about protecting an image of Christian beliefs, family values, hard work, and the American dream. Cain had all of those things going for him, plus he ingratiated himself to the Tea Party, AND he’s black. The GOP loved him because he resonated well with conservative members, moderate members, and because he could steal some of the black vote away from Obama. He’s still doing well in the polls right now, but with four women accusing him of sexual harassment, his campaign spokesman being a bumbling idiot, and Cain not keeping a consistent story on what happened, his star is starting to lose lots of luster.
Odds to win nomination: 10 to 1
Former Speaker Gingrich is like a shooting star right now. Initially he had no chance because he’s not part of the Tea Party, he represents the “old guard,” and because of his role in the government shutdowns of 1995 and 1996. Luckily for him Romney isn’t popular, Cain can’t keep his hand off women (allegedly), and Rick Perry is Rick Perry. Much of Gingrich’s gain comes from his ability to stay above the candidates’ infighting, candid, insightful remarks, and recent Tea Party support. This powerful support network has shifted from Bachmann to Perry to Cain, and now to Gingrich. This powerful wave may just lead the former Speaker of the House back into Washington.
Odds to win nomination: 5 to 1
When Governor Perry announced that he was seeking the party’s nomination for president it seemed as if a savior had finally been found. Here was a guy whose state was thriving in a crappy economy, had approval from the Tea Party, and could easily raise enough money to battle Obama all the way to the end. Perry shot up to the top of the polls immediately and antagonized GOP bastard child Romney every opportunity he could. Everything was going great until the debates started. He always seemed disinterested, unprepared, or inexperienced. In a very unfortunate turn of events for Perry, his candidacy chances ended November 9, 2011 when he couldn’t remember his talking point on the three agencies of government he would eliminate if he became president. It was a rather embarrassing moment for a guy who has spoken in front of crowds for decades. He sounded more like this lady than a politician. A campaign that started in August with a boom ended in November with an “oops.”
Odds to win nomination: 1oops to 1
Similar to his presidential run in 2008, Dr. Paul will win dozens of straw polls, but almost certainly won’t garner enough support to win the party nomination. In all reality much of this is based on his advanced age and lack of headline producing moments. Paul routinely makes his points, gives his speeches, and goes out campaigning. There’s not going to be any controversy or TMZ type nonsense surrounding his camp. Regrettably it’s not easy to win that way in our current society. Paul is like the San Antonio Spurs of the GOP. Despite being “boring,” the Spurs have won championships because they’re talented and play the right way. Unfortunately political positions are won by popularity contests, not skill and intellect level. The good doctor will stick around for a good while, but he’ll never be considered one of the favorites.
Odds to win nomination: 250 to 1
Rick Santorum/Michele Bachmann/Jon Huntsman, Jr
None of these three have a real chance, but each has something intriguing. Santorum has a very outspoken, in your face type of style, and that resonates with many voters. Bachmann is a member of the Tea Party and is the only female on the ticket. Obviously both of those things help and hurt her chances. Huntsman, Jr. is a Mormon (which has caused a dust up between Romney and Perry), but he’s the son of a billionaire, so the two may balance each other out.
Odds to win nomination: 500 to 1
He holds libertarian beliefs like Ron Paul, but doesn’t carry the same national cache. He has already been excluded from three debates and hasn’t raised very much money. Johnson has virtually no chance to win.
Odds to win nomination: 1000 to 1