2012 Election Breakdown #1


On May 29th Mitt Romney destroyed Ron Paul in the Texas Primary, and he officially amassed the 1144 delegates necessary to clinch the Republican Presidential Nomination.  The win was even sweeter for Romney since Paul is a congressman in the state of Texas.  Now that we’re finally down to a two man race, Answers From Men will handicap how the candidates will fare among certain groups and issues.

 

 

Blacks- This is an open and shut case.  Obama won roughly 96% of the black vote in 2008, and he’ll get at least that in November.  John McCain was more on the liberal side, like Romney is at heart, but Romney really pandered to conservatives to win the GOP nomination.  This one is a no-brainer.  Advantage Obama

 

Hispanics- In 2008 Hispanics represented 8% of the total voter turnout, and Obama took home 67% of those votes.  As things stand now, he has a significant advantage over Romney, especially considering the latter’s opinions on immigration and citizenship.  Of course all of that changes if Romney chooses Marco Rubio as his vice president.  Advantage Obama … for now

 

Whites

Men- Obama won the same percentage of the white male vote (43%) as Bill Clinton in 1996.  The difference is that this time around the cache of a new president won’t work in his favor.  Not only that, many white males, Republican or Democrat, just don’t see eye to eye with his policies.  No one may be enthralled with Romney’s personality, but he’s shown he knows how to generate revenue with plenty to spare.  While Obama wants to increase taxes on the richest Americans (mainly white males), Romney wants to lower them for these same people.  This is will be Romney’s biggest victory.  Advantage Romney


 

Women- Obama never seemed to fully connect with this voter group.  It seemed like he was making some inroads with his support of federal funds for contraceptive methods, but it’s probably still not enough.  Advantage Romney


Young- In 2008 Obama became the first Democratic candidate in over 30 years to get more than 45% of the young white voter group.  This increasing block of voters will be even more important in 2012 than in 2008, and both candidates are aware of this.  Obama keeps trying to make legislation to assist with student loan repayment, and Romney supports him.  What’s hurting the POTUS is that these young voters can’t find jobs.  No matter how much they like him, it’s hard to fully support the hip, pop culture savvy, affable president when one’s waiting on the unemployment line.  Very slight advantage Obama

 


 

The rich- Essentially the only rich people who will vote for Obama are Warren Buffett, big time environmentalists, and extreme liberals, and prominent minorities.  Romney promises a tax cut, and this will carry the day.  Advantage Romney


Economy- The economy is in shambles, but is slowly getting better.  Gas prices had reached record levels, but are also slowly improving.  Is this tepid recovery enough for people to trust that Obama can maintain this momentum?  Romney has personally done well financially, but can America have confidence that he cares enough about the middle class and the poor to completely right the ship?  Advantage even


Health care- Obamacare has been the bane of the existence of the GOP, many doctors, and the Catholic Church since its inception.  Despite Romney creating the blueprint for this concoction while he was governor of Massachusetts, his version never became a federal bill.  Advantage Romney

 

 

Terrorism- Romney talks about making America a world powerhouse again and growing the military.  He also talks about possibly going to war again in the Mideast.  The significant majority of Americans are tired of all these “wars,” so Obama has an advantage in this regard.  In addition, he did order the strike that caught Osama bin Laden.  People haven’t forgotten that yet.  Advantage Obama

 

Final tally: 4-4

It’s not a surprise that all the polls have the competitors almost exactly even at this point.  There’s still 5 months left for things to change, but as things stand now, this election will certainly be a photo finish.


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